Probabilistic population projections with migration uncertainty
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Probabilistic population projections with migration uncertainty.
We produce probabilistic projections of population for all countries based on probabilistic projections of fertility, mortality, and migration. We compare our projections to those from the United Nations' Probabilistic Population Projections, which uses similar methods for fertility and mortality but deterministic migration projections. We find that uncertainty in migration projection is a subs...
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We describe bayesPop, an R package for producing probabilistic population projections for all countries. This uses probabilistic projections of total fertility and life expectancy generated by Bayesian hierarchical models. It produces a sample from the joint posterior predictive distribution of future age- and sex-specific population counts, fertility rates and mortality rates, as well as futur...
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The United Nations publishes projections of populations around the world and breaks these down by age and sex. Traditionally, they are produced with standard demographic methods based on assumptions about future fertility rates, survival probabilities, and migration counts. Such projections, however, were not accompanied by formal statements of uncertainty expressed in probabilistic terms. In J...
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Population projection models that introduce uncertainty are a growing subset of projection models in general. In this paper, we focus on the importance of decisions made with regard to the model specifications adopted. We compare the forecasts and prediction intervals associated with four simple regional population projection models: an overall growth rate model, a component model with net migr...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
سال: 2016
ISSN: 0027-8424,1091-6490
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1606119113